Who Depends on Hormuz for LNG
Ossiano Research
LNG costs more. Money costs more. What that means for trade finance.
Qatar has extended force majeure on LNG shipments through November. Asian spot LNG trades at about $25 to $26 per mmbtu, Europe's gas storage is the lowest on record for the time of year, and central banks are raising rates again. This piece follows the money: what one cargo now costs, who buys Qatar's gas, and where cash gets tied up along the chain.
$25-26
Asian spot LNG, per
Traders' quotes reported on Sep 28.
$88m
Value of one standard cargo at $26
About $41m at the 2025 average Japan LNG import price.
71%
European gas storage, share full
Seasonal average about 87%. Germany 57%.
87%
Share of Qatar's 2025 LNG volume bought by Asia
Metric tons, as reported by importers to UN Comtrade.
Terms like this have a quick explainer. Tap or hover on them.
If you import or export
What this means for your next shipment
Importers
Every LNG cargo now needs more cash or credit, and that money costs more. A $100m credit line that covered two LNG cargoes at the 2025 average price covers one today, and the Fed, ECB and RBA all raised rates in September.
Exporters
Many of your buyers are paying more for energy and more to borrow. In our reading, that makes requests for longer payment terms more likely, especially from markets that depend on Hormuz such as Pakistan, India and Bangladesh.
Getting the supplier paid on time while giving the buyer time to pay is the gap Ossiano Capital works in. Talk to us about your next shipment →
01 · The price of a cargo
An LNG cargo at today's Asian spot price costs more than twice the 2025 average
LNG is priced per , a unit of energy. A standard cargo holds about 3.4 million mmbtu; the S&P Global Platts benchmark cargo is 3.3 to 3.5 million. At the late-September Asian spot price of about $26, that cargo is worth about $88.4 million. At $12.04, the 2025 average of the World Bank's Japan LNG import price, it was worth about $40.9 million.
The cause is supply. The Strait of Hormuz carried about a fifth of the world's LNG last year. QatarEnergy declared on March 4 and has updated customers and canceled deliveries roughly once a month since. This week it told buyers in Pakistan and Bangladesh that cancellations run through November, and told at least one Indian buyer the measure would remain, Bloomberg reported on September 28. Italy's Edison expects its deliveries to stay suspended until early December. Missile strikes on the Ras Laffan complex in March also took out two production trains, 12.8 million metric tons a year or 17% of Qatar's export capacity, which QatarEnergy said would take three to five years to restore.
The price rise is uneven. The World Bank's European gas price averaged $21.11 per mmbtu in August, up from $9.48 in December 2025. US gas stayed cheap: rose to $3.2 on September 25. Asian spot LNG at $25 to $26 is about eight times the US price.
Figure 1
Gas prices in Europe, Asia and the US
World Bank monthly benchmarks, $ per mmbtu. Switch between yearly averages and 2026 month by month. The Asia line is an import price that includes long-term contract cargoes, so it sits below spot.
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Pink Sheet (series: Natural gas, Europe; Liquefied natural gas, Japan; Natural gas, U.S.), editions January 2023 and March to September 2026. Each month uses the latest edition that lists it.
Figure 2
Try it: what one cargo costs, and what it costs to finance
Set the LNG price, the base interest rate and the days the cargo is financed. The cargo is 3.4 million mmbtu.
Cargo value
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Versus a cargo at $12.04 (2025 average)
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Interest at the base rate only
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We used cargo value = 3.4 million mmbtu × price, and simple interest = cargo value × rate × days ÷ 360. Rates: top of the Federal Reserve target range in December 2021 and from September 16, 2026; overnight SOFR on September 30, 2026 (Federal Reserve Bank of New York). Overnight SOFR is used as a simple guide for 30 to 90 days.
This calculator is illustrative and explains the concept only. Actual cargo values depend on contract terms and delivery basis. Actual financing costs include a bank margin and fees on top of the base rate.
02 · Who buys Qatar's gas
Almost 87% of Qatar's LNG goes to Asia
Qatar has not reported its LNG exports by destination to UN Comtrade for these years. Its buyers have. Adding up the volumes each importing country reported buying from Qatar gives a buyer map. In 2025, importers reported 59.7 million metric tons of LNG from Qatar. China took 19.6 million, India 11.9 million and South Korea 7.0 million. Asian importers took 86.7% of the total and European importers 13.2%.
Qatar is one of two LNG exporters inside the Gulf. The other is the UAE. Both ship through Hormuz. Pakistan is the most exposed buyer: Qatar and the UAE supplied 99.0% of the LNG it reported importing in 2025. The share was 58.6% for India, 47.2% for Singapore, 29.0% for China, 15.4% for South Korea and 6.3% for Japan. Across Asia, importers received 56.3 million metric tons through Hormuz in 2025, 24.2% of their reported LNG imports.
When contract cargoes are canceled, buyers turn to the spot market. Pakistan paid $21.88 per mmbtu for a mid-July cargo, according to CSIS. Bangladesh approved six spot cargoes in August at prices from $21.55 to $24.625, Asia News Network reported.
Method
How we built the buyer map
We used UN Comtrade bulk data for HS code 271111 (liquefied natural gas) for 2023 to 2025, covering every country that reported LNG trade. Volumes are net weight as reported by importers, converted to million metric tons. Where an exporter does not report, as with Qatar, we use its buyers' filings. This is called . "Through Hormuz" means LNG from Qatar and the UAE.
The totals are a floor. Importers that do not report to UN Comtrade, including Bangladesh, Poland and Türkiye, are missing, and Taiwan has not yet filed for 2025. The 59.7 million metric tons from Qatar in 2025 equals 73% of the 81.5 million metric tons Qatar exported that year, according to the IGU World LNG Report. Weights for Pakistan, France and Egypt, and for Taiwan in 2024, are estimated by UN Comtrade from reported values; they are marked with an asterisk in Figure 4. Values and prices in UN Comtrade are shown as reported.
Figure 3
LNG bought from Qatar, by importer
Million metric tons. Tap to switch between volumes and each buyer's share of the year's total.
Source: UN Comtrade, HS 271111, imports reported with partner Qatar, net weight, 2023 to 2025. We summed volumes by importer and year.
Figure 4
How much of each country's LNG comes through Hormuz
Reported LNG imports by country, 2023 to 2025. Filter by region, then switch the view. Tap a column heading to sort. Countries importing at least 1 million metric tons in any year.
Mt = million metric tons. Through Hormuz = LNG from Qatar and the UAE. Change is 2023 to 2025, in percentage points for shares. * Weight estimated by UN Comtrade from reported value. Blank = not reported. The total row covers every reporting country in the region, including those under 1 million metric tons.
Source: UN Comtrade, HS 271111, imports by reporting country and partner, net weight, 2023 to 2025. We summed volumes and computed shares.
03 · Europe's winter
Europe starts winter with the lowest gas storage on record
European storage sites are about 71% full, against a seasonal average of about 87%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data reported by Bloomberg. That is the lowest for the time of year in records going back to 2009. Germany is at 57%. EU rules ask for 90% at any point between October 1 and December 1, with flexibility to go lower; Bloomberg reports the target can drop to 80% in difficult conditions and to 75% if problems persist.
Storage usually pays for itself. Traders buy gas in summer, when it is cheap, and sell it in winter, when it is dear. The gap between the two prices covers the cost of storing and financing the gas. This year the gap closed. At one point in March, buying summer gas to sell in winter would have lost more than €8 per megawatt-hour before storage fees. October contracts still trade slightly above winter contracts, and May 2027 trades above the following November. On ICE Endex on October 1, summer 2027 gas traded at €54.37 per megawatt-hour and the following winter at €50.00, a gap of minus €4.37 before storage and financing costs. Uniper and Bayernugs have applied to shut two storage sites next year.
Europe's LNG imports have risen since early August. Europe is set to take about a quarter of global LNG supply in September, up from under 19% in July, according to Kpler. India is competing for the same cargoes: its September LNG imports are set to rise 10% from a year earlier.
Europe's direct exposure to Hormuz is smaller. Qatar supplied 7.9 million metric tons to European importers in 2025, 7.6% of the LNG they reported importing, down from 13.4 million metric tons (12.2%) in 2023. Italy (32.9% through Hormuz) and Belgium (25.3%) are the most exposed. France, Germany and the Netherlands reported no LNG from Qatar or the UAE in 2025.
Europe's largest supplier is the US, which provided 51.9 million metric tons, 50.3% of Europe's reported LNG imports in 2025. Asian importers received 56.3 million metric tons through Hormuz that year, more than Europe's entire US volume. Bloomberg reports that the shortage has put Europe and Asia in competition for the same flexible supply from the US.
Figure 5
Where Europe's LNG comes from
Reported imports by European countries, by supplier. Switch between volumes and shares.
Source: UN Comtrade, HS 271111, imports reported by 33 European countries (EU members that report, the UK, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Western Balkan states), net weight, 2023 to 2025. Poland and Türkiye do not report. The UK's 2024 volume (2.6 million metric tons, against 14.8 million in 2023 and 9.4 million in 2025) is shown as reported.
In our reading, gas injected into storage this fall carries a financing cost with no seasonal price gain to pay it back. Whoever holds that gas, whether a trader, a utility or a government, carries the inventory at today's interest rates.
Figure 6
European gas storage against the normal level and the EU target
Share of storage capacity that is full, late September 2026.
Sources: Gas Infrastructure Europe data via Bloomberg, September 29, 2026; Council of the European Union, gas storage targets.
Figure 7
European gas futures: summer 2027 gas costs more than the winter after it
Dutch TTF futures on ICE Endex, last traded prices on October 1, 2026, € per megawatt-hour. Winter months are orange, summer months green.
| Storage season | Summer price | Following winter | Winter minus summer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | €54.37 | €50.00 | -€4.37 |
| 2028 | €34.44 | €34.70 | +€0.26 |
| 2029 | €28.24 | €28.70 | +€0.47 |
Winter minus summer is the gross gain from buying gas in summer and selling it the following winter, before storage and financing costs. A negative number means the trade loses money before those costs. Winter 2026-27 is the November 2026 to March 2027 strip.
Source: ICE Endex, Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, last traded prices as of October 1, 2026, delayed at least 15 minutes. Prices are as reported; they are last trades, not official settlement prices.
04 · Interest rates
Central banks are raising rates again
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 0.25 percentage points on September 16, to 3.75% to 4.00%. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50%, effective the same day. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.60% on September 29, effective September 30. The Bank of England held at 3.75%. , a benchmark the New York Fed publishes daily and widely used to price dollar loans, was 3.90% on September 30.
At the end of 2021, the top of the Fed's range was 0.25% and the ECB's deposit rate was minus 0.50%. LNG traders now face higher prices and higher rates at the same time, and the two multiply. At SOFR alone, before any bank margin, financing an $88.4 million cargo for 30 days costs about $287,300. The same 30 days on a cargo bought at the 2025 average price costs about $133,000.
Figure 8
Policy rates, end of 2021 versus now
Percent. Fed shown as the top of its target range.
Sources: Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of India rate decisions and published rate tables, as of October 1, 2026. RBI end-2021 rate from its December 8, 2021 decision as reported by Business Standard.
05 · The chain reaction
High gas prices have spread to power, fertilizer and shipping
Power. Bangladesh hit a record power shortfall of 3,757 megawatts in August, with some rural areas going 10 to 18 hours a day without power, the Dhaka Tribune reported. S&P cut Bangladesh's rating outlook to negative in late July. Pakistan had run eleven spot LNG tenders this year and awarded six as of late August, according to CSIS.
Fertilizer. Gas makes up 80% to 90% of the cost of making ammonia, the base of nitrogen fertilizer, and nearly a third of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade passes through Hormuz, according to the World Bank. Urea reached $856.90 a metric ton in April, about twice its 2025 average of $422.70, before easing to $390 in August. The IEA reports lower fertilizer production in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan.
Industry. Credit insurer Atradius forecasts chemicals output in the EU and UK to fall 2.2% in 2026, and 4.7% in Germany, citing higher oil and gas prices.
Shipping and insurance. Spot rates for LNG carriers in the Atlantic were $210,000 a day on March 10 and were $25,500 a day on September 25, according to Spark Commodities data reported by LNG Prime. for Hormuz transits rose from 0.15% to 0.25% of a ship's hull value before February 28 to between 3% and 10% afterwards. At 10%, a single transit for a $150 million vessel costs $15 million.
Credit. In March, Trafigura arranged a $3 billion contingent revolving credit facility, and Vitol and Gunvor were in talks to raise $3 billion and $1 billion, GTR reported, citing Bloomberg. A lawyer quoted in that report expected banks to focus on large established traders, with smaller traders at risk of being shut out of trade finance. Trade Finance Global reported smaller firms facing higher collateral and tighter terms in June.
Figure 9
Follow the chain
Pick a link to see how the LNG squeeze reaches it, step by step.
Sources: Bloomberg, September 28, 2026; CSIS, August 26, 2026; Asia News Network, August 25, 2026; Dhaka Tribune, August 14, 2026; The Daily Star, July 2026; World Bank via Ecofin Agency, April 30, 2026; World Bank Pink Sheet; IEA Gas Market Report Q3-2026; Insurance Business, September 2, 2026; LNG Prime, March 10 and September 25, 2026; GTR, March 18, 2026.
Figure 10
Urea price, 2026 month by month
$ per metric ton. The dashed line is the 2025 average.
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Pink Sheet, series Urea, E. Europe, July and September 2026 editions. January to March values reproduce the published first-quarter average of $537.70.
06 · Where money gets tied up
Six places the LNG squeeze ties up cash
Each link in the chain now needs more money per unit of gas, and that money costs more to borrow. The table sets out where.
Figure 11
Where the cash sits
| Link | What changed | What it means for cash |
|---|---|---|
| Buying the cargo | A standard cargo is worth about $88.4m at $26, up from about $40.9m at the 2025 average. | A $100m credit line that covered two cargoes at the 2025 price covers one today. |
| Financing the cargo | SOFR is 3.90%. The Fed, ECB and RBA all raised rates in September. | About $287,300 of base-rate interest per cargo per 30 days, before margin. |
| Replacing canceled cargoes | Qatar cancellations run through November for Pakistan and Bangladesh; at least one Indian buyer was told the measure remains. | Pakistan and Bangladesh bought spot cargoes at $21.55 to $24.63 per mmbtu in July and August. |
| Storing gas for winter | Summer gas costs as much as winter gas. European storage is 71% full. | Stored gas carries a financing cost with no seasonal price gain. |
| Shipping it | War-risk cover for a Hormuz transit costs 3% to 10% of hull value. | Up to $15m per transit on a $150m vessel. |
| Building new supply | LNG Canada's second phase is expected to draw C$33bn (US$23bn) of private capital. A $54bn South Korean investment in Alaska LNG was announced, is disputed by Seoul and has no final investment decision. | Long-lived projects arriving as the IEA expects global gas demand to dip about 0.5% in 2026. |
Sources: as cited in sections 01 to 05 and 07. Cargo and interest figures are our arithmetic from those sources (3.4 million mmbtu cargo; simple interest, 360-day year).
Practical checks
Before your next order is placed
Importers
- Count how many cargoes or orders your current credit line covers at today's prices.
- Price the financing period at today's base rate, not last year's.
- Ask your supplier which payment terms they will accept against documents.
Exporters
- Check how much of your order book sits with buyers in Hormuz-dependent markets.
- Agree documents and payment terms before the cargo loads.
- Decide who carries the receivable if your buyer asks for 90 or 120 days.
Ossiano Capital buys from the supplier against documents and sells to the buyer on terms of up to 120 days*. Contact us to talk through your next trade →
*Tenor and terms are subject to Ossiano's underwriting.
07 · Outlook
Tight this winter, with more supply due by 2028
The near term depends on Hormuz. If Qatar can raise output and ship more through the Gulf in the coming weeks, spot LNG prices could fall, according to BloombergNEF, though it expects buyers to stay cautious. In July, the IEA expected global LNG supply to be broadly flat in 2026, assuming Hormuz fully reopened in the third quarter, and warned that any delay risked the first annual fall in LNG supply since 2012. The third quarter has ended with flows through Hormuz still far below pre-war levels, Bloomberg reported on September 28. The IEA puts total lost supply at 140 billion cubic meters () over 2026 to 2030.
Published forecasts point to lower prices in 2027. The US Energy Information Administration expects Henry Hub at $3.13 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $3.28 in 2027. In April, the World Bank forecast European gas at $15 in 2026 and $12 in 2027, and Japan LNG at $16 and $13. Those forecasts came before European prices rose further over the summer.
Further out, a large wave of supply is coming. The IEA counts about 345 bcm a year of new LNG export capacity due between 2025 and 2030 from projects already approved, with the biggest year of additions, about 95 bcm, in 2028. Shell and its partners approved doubling LNG Canada to 28 million metric tons a year, with the expansion due in the early 2030s. A $54 billion South Korean investment in Alaska LNG was announced at the White House this week; Seoul has disputed that description, and the US Commerce Department's fact sheet says the work is subject to meeting commercial reasonableness. The project has not reached a .
Some buyers are planning to need less. Thailand's draft power plan raises renewables to 50% of its grid within a decade, from 20% today. In Vietnam, LNG power developers are seeking purchase guarantees covering up to 95% of their sales for up to 25 years, and the government is resisting, Bloomberg Opinion reports.
Figure 12
Price forecasts for 2026 and 2027
$ per mmbtu. 2025 actual against published forecasts. World Bank forecasts are from April 2026; EIA forecasts are from September 2026.
Sources: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026; US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026; 2025 actuals from the World Bank Pink Sheet.
Three observations
OBSERVATION 01
Contract buyers are paying spot prices
Qatar's cancellations land on buyers with long-term contracts, mostly in Asia. Pakistan and Bangladesh bought spot cargoes at $21.55 to $24.63 per mmbtu in July and August, and S&P cut Bangladesh's rating outlook to negative in late July.
OBSERVATION 02
The same credit line buys half as many cargoes
At $26 a cargo needs about $88.4m, against $40.9m at the 2025 average price. Base rates are higher too. A lawyer quoted by GTR in March expected banks to focus on the largest traders.
OBSERVATION 03
New supply arrives as some buyers plan to use less
The IEA counts about 345 bcm a year of new export capacity by 2030. Thailand plans to cut its reliance on spot LNG, and Vietnam is resisting long-term purchase guarantees sought by LNG power developers. In our reading, offtake terms agreed now will run well past the current shortage.
Summary
Each LNG cargo now needs more than twice the money, at higher rates
Qatar's force majeure runs through November, Asian spot LNG is at about $25 to $26 per mmbtu, and Europe enters winter with storage about 71% full. A standard cargo is worth about $88.4 million at today's Asian price.
Interest rates are rising at the same time. The Fed, ECB and RBA all raised rates in September, and SOFR is 3.90%. Buyers, traders and storage holders all carry more value for each cargo and pay more to finance it, and shipowners pay more to insure each Hormuz voyage.
Supply is due to grow strongly toward 2028, and forecasters expect lower prices in 2027. Until Hormuz reopens, the buyers most exposed are Asian importers, which took almost 87% of Qatar's reported LNG volume in 2025. Europe's direct exposure is 7.6% of its LNG, but half of its supply comes from the US, the same supply Asian buyers now compete for.
For questions on how these shifts affect existing or planned trade finance exposures, contact Ossiano Research.
Primary trade data (directly used)
- UN Comtrade Plus, HS 271111, all reporters, imports and exports, 2023 to 2025, bulk download dated October 2, 2026. Figures 3, 4 and 5 and all volume figures in sections 02 and 03.
- International Gas Union, World LNG Report 2026, via Zawya, July 30, 2026. Qatar exported 81.5 million metric tons in 2025, used to check the coverage of the buyer map.
Benchmark prices (directly used)
- World Bank, Commodity Markets Pink Sheet, September 2026, with the March, April, June, July and August 2026 editions and January 2023. Figures 1, 10 and 12; Europe, US and Japan LNG prices; urea prices.
- World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts, April 2026. 2026 and 2027 forecasts in Figure 12.
- JOGMEC data via Global LNG Hub, Natural gas prices weekly update, September 28, 2026. Henry Hub at about $3.2.
- ICE Endex, Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures data, last traded prices as of October 1, 2026. Figure 7 and the summer 2027 and winter 2027-28 prices in section 03.
- S&P Global Platts, JKM cargo quantity specification, February 16, 2026. Standard cargo of 3.3 to 3.5 million mmbtu.
Central banks (directly used)
- Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026 and December 15, 2021.
- European Central Bank, Key ECB interest rates.
- Bank of England, Bank Rate history.
- Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision of September 29, 2026, as reported by WATC RBA updates.
- Reserve Bank of India, policy repo rate; December 2021 level per Business Standard, December 8, 2021.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, SOFR data, September 30, 2026.
Energy agencies (directly used)
- IEA, Gas Market Report Q3-2026, July 2026. 2026 demand and supply outlook, 140 bcm supply loss, fertilizer output in South Asia.
- IEA, Global LNG Capacity Tracker, updated June 12, 2026. About 345 bcm a year of new capacity to 2030; about 95 bcm in 2028.
- US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026. Henry Hub forecasts.
- US EIA, Today in Energy, July 14, 2026. About 20% of global LNG supply affected by the Hormuz closure.
- Council of the European Union, Gas storage targets.
Trade press and sector reporting
- Bloomberg, Qatar Extends LNG Force Majeure as Hormuz Disruptions Drag On, September 28, 2026. Cancellations through November, Edison to early December, a fifth of global LNG, Ras Laffan running at reduced capacity.
- Bloomberg, Europe Draws More LNG as Hormuz Crisis Tightens Global Market, September 28, 2026. Asian spot at $25 to $26; Kpler shares for Europe and India; BloombergNEF outlook; Europe's LNG imports since 2022.
- Bloomberg, Europe's LNG Shift Is Breaking the Economics of Gas Storage, September 29, 2026. Storage levels, spreads, storage targets, site closures.
- Bloomberg, Canada LNG Plant Set to Double Exports on $23 Billion Expansion, September 29, 2026.
- Bloomberg, report on the $54 billion Korean investment plan for Alaska LNG, September 30, 2026; and Bloomberg Opinion, columns of October 1, 2026 on Alaska LNG and on Asian LNG demand. Alaska LNG status, Commerce Department fact sheet wording, Thailand and Vietnam plans.
- Anadolu Agency, Qatar LNG export capacity cut by 17%, March 20, 2026; Gulf News, QatarEnergy declares force majeure, March 4, 2026.
- CSIS, Pakistan's LNG imports under pressure, August 26, 2026.
- Asia News Network, Bangladesh spot LNG cargoes, August 25, 2026; Dhaka Tribune, Load-shedding reaches Dhaka, August 14, 2026; The Daily Star, S&P revises Bangladesh outlook to negative, July 2026.
- World Bank via Ecofin Agency, fertilizer trade and ammonia costs, April 30, 2026.
- Atradius, Industry trends: chemicals, May 2026.
- Insurance Business, Hormuz war-risk rates, September 2, 2026.
- LNG Prime, Spark Commodities freight data, March 10, 2026 and September 25, 2026 ($25,500 per the article summary).
- GTR, Hormuz crisis could drive flight to quality in commodity finance market, March 18, 2026.
- Trade Finance Global, The impact of the Iran conflict on SMEs, June 2, 2026.
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