India's ethanol program reduced its Persian Gulf exposure. Brazil captured the sugar corridor India left behind. Both benefit from firm crude prices; buyers absorb the corridor risk.

Crude is near $97 a barrel and jet fuel has roughly doubled since February 2026. Institutional forecasts have prices moderating by late 2026, with a market surplus in 2027. Between now and then, CFOs financing aviation, tourism, and the suppliers around them face higher freight costs, slower receivables, and a rate environment that has shifted under their existing facilities. The Ossiano Research Desk walks through the four shock layers, the corridor variable, and what it means for working capital through 2026.

Coal prices have fallen from the 2022 peak. Russia is one of the reasons: it sells at a discount to four buyers in Asia and Türkiye. Oil is unstable. If countries turn back to coal, or if a trade deal moves one of those buyers off Russian supply, demand shifts to Australia, Indonesia, and the United States.

The World Trade Organization's Trade Barometer, a composite leading indicator of global goods trade, registered 101.7 in April. Down slightly from 102.3 in January. But still above 100, which means trade growth is running faster than its multi-decade average. Despite the Gulf disruption. Despite the tariff uncertainty. Despite the consumer-sentiment readings.

Most people do not know that Brazil introduced cashew to the world. Fewer still know that 88% of the cashew apple — a fruit produced in quantities of 2.7 million metric tonnes annually — is discarded as waste every harvest season. Inside the cashew belt of Brazil's Northeast, something significant is being rebuilt. New orchard varieties. New processing models. A carbon credit programme that could generate millions for the region by 2030.Brazil gave the world the cashew. Now it is reclaiming its place in it.

The "specialty" in specialty coffee is being tested by a system designed for high-volume commodity giants. For the mid-market manufacturer, survival depends on finding a partner who understands that Time is the only true hedge.

If your business is benefiting from the current energy price environment, now is an ideal time to explore how your improved credit position could be structured into a supply chain finance program — protecting your supplier base and locking in supply chain resilience before market conditions shift again.

With rates staying higher for longer and cost pressures building, it's a good moment to map out your full working capital cycle — from when you pay suppliers to when customers pay you — and identify where trade finance tools could release cash that's currently sitting idle in that gap.

With oil at $118 a barrel and supplier cost pressures rising, now is a smart time to review whether your current payment terms are putting strain on your supply chain — and whether an early payment solution could protect both your suppliers and your own continuity of supply.