Companies seek $2.5 trillion more trade finance than providers approve, and SMEs face the highest rejection rate
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Ossiano Guides · Foundations of trade finance
The Asian Development Bank's 2025 survey of more than 110 providers leaves its estimate unchanged from 2023 and puts the gap at around 10 percent of merchandise trade flows.
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01 · Definition
The gap measures demand that providers decline
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) defines the as the unmet demand from companies for financial institutions to provide risk mitigation and loans supporting imports and exports, in its Global Trade Finance Gap Survey. Put simply, it counts the that companies ask for and do not receive.
The latest edition was published as ADB Brief No. 378 in December 2025 and draws on more than 110 trade finance providers. It puts the global gap at $2.5 trillion, unchanged from 2023.
Measured against trade, the gap equals around 10 percent of merchandise trade flows in the 2025 survey, against about 10.6 percent of global trade flows in 2023, ADB reports.
02 · Trend
The estimate rose from $1.5 trillion to $2.5 trillion across survey editions
ADB's 2019 Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey found that the global gap remained at around $1.5 trillion, a figure its news release of September 3, 2019 also reported. The 2019 pages do not state a reference year for that estimate, so the chart labels it by survey edition.
The 2023 edition reported that the gap reached $2.5 trillion in 2022, up from $1.7 trillion in 2020. That is an increase of $0.8 trillion, or 47.1 percent, on our Research Desk's calculation. The 2025 survey then held the estimate at $2.5 trillion, a change of $0.0 trillion.
Figure 1 · Interactive
The trade finance gap, by ADB survey
Tap a point to see the estimate and the survey that published it. The dashed line marks $2.5 trillion.
Sources: Asian Development Bank, 2019 Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey (September 2019); 2023 Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey (September 2023); ADB Global Trade Finance Gap Survey, Brief No. 378 (December 2025).
The 2019 survey value is "around $1.5 trillion". Changes calculated by our Research Desk.
03 · Who is declined
Rejection rates run from 20 percent for multinationals to 41 percent for SMEs
The 2025 survey reports a trade finance of 41 percent for , 40 percent for large corporates and mid-caps, and 20 percent for multinationals, according to ADB Brief No. 378.
The 2019 survey put the rates at 45 percent for SMEs, 39 percent for mid- and larger-sized firms and 17 percent for multinational corporations, per ADB's 2019 news release. The 2019 publication summarized it as more than 40 percent of SME trade finance applications rejected by banks.
Between the two editions, the SME rate moved by -4 percentage points, the mid and large firm rate by +1 and the multinational rate by +3. As an illustration, at the 2025 SME rate, 41 of every 100 SME applications would be declined and 59 approved.
Figure 2 · Interactive
Rejection rates by firm size, 2019 and 2025 surveys
Tap a bar for the rate. Each pair compares the two survey editions.
Sources: Asian Development Bank news release, September 3, 2019; ADB Global Trade Finance Gap Survey, Brief No. 378, December 2025. Changes in percentage points calculated by our Research Desk.
ADB's middle segment is "mid- and larger-sized firms" in the 2019 survey and "large corporate and mid-cap" in the 2025 survey.
04 · Method
The figure is a survey of providers, published under an open license
The gap is an estimate built from what trade finance providers report. The 2025 edition surveyed more than 110 of them, according to the brief, so it reads demand from the provider side.
ADB publishes the brief under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO), which is why this page can chart ADB figures with attribution. The publication page lists it as Brief No. 378, December 2025, DOI 10.22617/BRF250557-2.
05 · Closing the gap
Development banks share risk with local banks to extend supply
run trade programs that take part of the risk local banks carry. ADB's Trade and Supply Chain Finance Program supported $5.7 billion of trade across 24,722 transactions in 2025 and mobilized $3.5 billion from the private sector, a form of . Since 2009 it has supported more than 104,000 transactions valued at $74 billion, through over 250 partner financial institutions.
The International Finance Corporation (IFC) committed and mobilized $23 billion of trade and supply chain finance in FY26, and has supported more than $330 billion over the past 20 years, according to its global trade page.
Through its Trade Facilitation Program (TFP), the EBRD provides guarantees to international , taking political and commercial payment risk, as its 2019 news release describes. That cover supports the a bank adds to a letter of credit. In March 2017 the EBRD reported its 20,000th TFP transaction and a network of more than 100 issuing and over 800 confirming banks.
Programs also reach suppliers through their buyers. In June 2026, IFC and Banco Santander agreed a facility covering up to $500 million of assets, expected to support about $1.5 billion of transactions over three years and to let emerging market suppliers finance against buyer credit, per the IFC press release. Government-backed work alongside these programs; our ECA-backed finance card covers them.
Figure 3 · Interactive
Development bank trade programs
Tap a tab for each institution's headline figures.
06 · Ossiano view
The gap is large and stable, and risk sharing is scaling to meet it
OBSERVATION 01
A stable estimate
ADB's 2025 estimate of $2.5 trillion is unchanged from 2023. The unmet demand has held at a level large enough to shape strategy for providers and corporates alike.
OBSERVATION 02
Firm size drives access
SMEs faced a 41 percent rejection rate against 20 percent for multinationals in 2025. Programs that let suppliers finance against an anchor buyer's credit, such as the IFC and Banco Santander facility, are one route suppliers use to reach finance.
OBSERVATION 03
Risk-sharing programs are growing
ADB's program has supported more than 104,000 transactions worth $74 billion since 2009. Development bank guarantees give partner banks cover to extend trade finance in markets where exposure is scarce.
Summary
The gap is $2.5 trillion, and access narrows as firms get smaller
ADB's 2025 survey of more than 110 providers estimates the global trade finance gap at $2.5 trillion, unchanged from 2023 and around 10 percent of merchandise trade flows. The estimate stood at around $1.5 trillion in the 2019 survey and $1.7 trillion for 2020.
Rejection rates were 41 percent for SMEs, 40 percent for large corporates and mid-caps, and 20 percent for multinationals. Development banks including ADB, IFC and the EBRD share risk with partner banks to extend supply.
Related guides: What is trade finance?; Why global trade runs on credit; Payables finance; Letters of credit; Know your customer in trade finance, on checks; Data and AI in trade credit decisions. Instrument cards: Confirmed letter of credit; Payables finance; ECA-backed finance; Trade credit insurance. Terms are defined in the Trade Finance Glossary.
For questions on how these shifts affect existing or planned trade finance exposures, contact the Ossiano Research Desk.
Sources
- Asian Development Bank, ADB Global Trade Finance Gap Survey (ADB Brief No. 378), December 2025. Supports: the definition of the trade finance gap (page 2, footnote 1); the 2025 gap of $2.5 trillion, unchanged from 2023; around 10 percent of merchandise trade flows in 2025 and about 10.6 percent of global trade flows in 2023; rejection rates of 41 percent (SMEs), 40 percent (large corporate and mid-cap) and 20 percent (multinationals); the sample of over 110 providers; the CC BY 3.0 IGO license.
- Asian Development Bank, 2023 Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey (ADB Briefs), September 2023. Supports: the gap of $2.5 trillion in 2022, up from $1.7 trillion in 2020.
- Asian Development Bank, ADB Global Trade Finance Gap Survey, publication page, December 2025. Supports: Brief No. 378, December 2025, DOI 10.22617/BRF250557-2.
- Asian Development Bank, 2019 Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey, September 2019. Supports: the gap of around $1.5 trillion in the 2019 survey; more than 40 percent of SME trade finance applications rejected by banks.
- Asian Development Bank, $1.5 Trillion Global Trade Finance Gap Frustrating Efforts to Deliver Crucial Jobs and Growth: ADB, September 3, 2019. Supports: the $1.5 trillion gap; 2019 rejection rates of 45 percent (SMEs), 39 percent (mid- and larger-sized firms) and 17 percent (multinational corporations).
- Asian Development Bank, Trade and Supply Chain Finance Program, September 17, 2026. Supports: $5.7 billion of trade across 24,722 transactions in 2025 and $3.5 billion mobilized from the private sector; more than 104,000 transactions valued at $74 billion since 2009 through over 250 partner financial institutions.
- International Finance Corporation, Global trade finance, 2026. Supports: $23 billion committed and mobilized in FY26; more than $330 billion of trade and supply chain finance supported over the past 20 years.
- European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, EBRD supports trade in Uzbekistan, March 21, 2019. Supports: TFP guarantees to international confirming banks, taking political and commercial payment risk.
- International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group and Banco Santander partner to unlock working capital and jobs, June 23, 2026. Supports: a facility covering up to $500 million of supply chain finance assets, expected to support about $1.5 billion of transactions over three years; suppliers financing against buyer credit; the Global Supply Chain Finance Program, launched 2022.
- European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, EBRD Trade Facilitation Program reaches new milestone, March 28, 2017. Supports: TFP established 1999; 20,000th transaction in 2017; 2016 volume of EUR 1.543 billion; more than 100 issuing and over 800 confirming banks.
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