Air conditioners and parts: Mexico's cooling trade with the US

← Mexico Trade Corridor

Mexico Trade Corridor · Product brief · HS 8415

Mexico's air conditioner exports to the United States almost doubled between 2020 and 2025, and more than half of the value is parts. Two sets of US rules now shape the trade: refrigerant limits and a Section 232 duty on HVAC goods.

Published October 23, 2026 · Facts as of October 23, 2026 · 10 min read · Trade data: UN Comtrade, 2020 to 2025 · Rules as of October 23, 2026

Facts as of October 23, 2026. This page states the facts as they stood on that date. Tariffs, rules and figures may have changed since publication. Tariffs and trade policy change often, so we review these pages every month and update them.

#12

Mexico's No. 12 export to the US in 2025, ranked by value as reported by Mexico (UN Comtrade, 4-digit HS codes). The US figure is shown beside it because the two countries count the same trade differently.

US$7.5bnMexico's exports to the US, 2025, as reported by Mexico

US$7.5bnThe same flow, 2025, as reported by the US

+89.2%Change 2020 to 2025, Mexico data

US$0.5bnMexico's imports from the US in the same code, 2025, Mexico data

What is it?

HS 8415 covers air conditioning machines with a motor-driven fan and elements that change temperature and humidity, and their parts. Mexico reported US$7.5 billion of these exports to the US in 2025 ¹.

Why does it matter?

Air conditioners are Mexico's 12th-largest export to the US by 4-digit HS code, and trade is almost all one way. Exports grew 89.2% from 2020 to 2025, on Mexico's data ¹.

How does it work?

Plants in Nuevo León and San Luis Potosí build units and parts, which travel by truck to US distributors and manufacturers. US refrigerant rules set what can be sold, and a Section 232 duty at a reduced 15% covers certain HVAC goods ^2,3,4,7.

In this brief

1. How big is the air conditioner trade between Mexico and the US?
2. Which products cross the border?
3. Who makes the air conditioners, and where?
4. How do the units get from the plant to the buyer?
5. Which rules and tariffs apply?
6. Where do makers need cash, and how is it financed?
7. What should air conditioner traders watch next?

01How big is the air conditioner trade between Mexico and the US?

Mexico reported US$7.5 billion of air conditioner exports to the US in 2025. That is up 89.2% from US$4.0 billion in 2020, and down 0.7% from 2024 ¹. Air conditioners were 1.4% of Mexico's US$545.4 billion of reported exports to the US ¹.

The growth came early. Exports rose 21.4% in 2021, 24.9% in 2022, 12.0% in 2023 and 12.2% in 2024, before the small fall in 2025, on Mexico's data ¹.

The southbound flow is small. Mexico reported US$0.5 billion of imports from the US in 2025, down 22.1% from 2024 ¹. On Mexico's figures, the country sold US$7.0 billion more air conditioners and parts to the US than it bought ¹.

The two countries' records are close for this product. US data shows US$7.5 billion of imports from Mexico in 2025, 0.2% above Mexico's figure, and US$0.5 billion of exports to Mexico ¹. Our data gap explainer sets out why the two sides usually differ more.

Chart

Air conditioner trade, both directions, both sides of the data

• Mexico to US, Mexico data
• Mexico to US, US data
• US to Mexico, Mexico data
• US to Mexico, US data

US$ billion. Solid lines: as reported by Mexico. Dashed lines: as reported by the US. Source: UN Comtrade, 2020 to 2025.

02Which products cross the border?

Parts lead. The 6-digit line for air conditioner parts was US$4.2 billion in 2025, or 56.6% of the total, as reported by Mexico ¹. US data puts the same line at US$5.4 billion, or 72.0% of its total ¹. On both sides, parts are more than half of the trade.

Finished units follow. Units with their own refrigerating unit were US$1.9 billion, or 25.6% of the total, and reversible heat pumps US$0.5 billion, or 6.6% ¹. Vehicle air conditioners were 2.6% and window and wall units 0.9% ¹.

Chart

The largest air conditioner lines Mexico ships to the US

US$ billion and share of the 4-digit total, 2025, as reported by Mexico. Source: UN Comtrade. In Mexico's data the 6-digit lines add up to US$7.3 billion, less than the 4-digit total of US$7.5 billion, so shares are of the 4-digit total.

Parts were 56.6% of Mexico's reported air conditioner exports to the US in 2025.

03Who makes the air conditioners, and where?

Global HVAC groups make units and parts in northern and central Mexico. In August 2024, Trane announced US$18 million to adapt its Monterrey plant to build 3 to 5 ton residential package units for the US market. The plant already made scroll and screw compressors and commercial split and package systems ².

Daikin opened the third plant on its San Luis Potosí campus on October 12, 2025. It reported accumulated investment of MXN 5.78 billion, MXN 1.1 billion of new projects, and more than 4,000 employees in the state ³. The company focuses there on R32 refrigerant, inverter compressors and heat pumps. Its announcement does not say what share of output goes to the US ³.

On the buying side, units go to US distributors and dealers, and parts go to manufacturers that assemble systems.

04How do the units get from the plant to the buyer?

Units and parts from Nuevo León and San Luis Potosí travel north by truck. In 2025, Laredo, Texas handled 46.1% of the value of US-Mexico truck trade ⁹. We have not found port data for this product alone. Our guide to border crossings covers each port.

Demand for cooling is seasonal, so in general practice makers and distributors build stock ahead of the summer. The maker ships with a commercial invoice, and the sale contract sets who pays for each leg and who clears customs, usually through an Incoterms rule. The Incoterms guide explains each one.

1. Plant in MexicoA plant in Nuevo León or San Luis Potosí assembles compressors, coils, fans and electronics into units or parts.
2. PaperworkThe maker issues a commercial invoice and, for a USMCA claim, a certification of origin. A customs broker files the export declaration.
3. Truck northUnits and parts cross by truck, often through Texas ports.
4. US customsThe importer checks the refrigerant rules, claims USMCA treatment and pays any Section 232 duty that applies.
5. Distributor or plantUnits go to a distributor's warehouse and parts to a manufacturer. The invoice is now due on the agreed terms.

05Which rules and tariffs apply?

Refrigerant rules decide what can be sold. Under the US AIM Act, the cap on hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and imports is 60% of the historic baseline from 2024 to 2028, and falls to 30% from 2029 ⁵. HFCs inside finished products need no import allowance, but product limits still apply ⁵. Since January 1, 2025, components for new residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump systems must use refrigerants with a global warming potential below 700 ⁴. An EPA rule in force since July 27, 2026 removed the installation deadline for systems whose components were made or imported before January 1, 2025 ^6,10.

Section 232 metals duties also reach this product. Under Proclamation 11032, certain residential HVAC goods sit in Annex III at a reduced 15% rate on full value, from June 8, 2026 through December 31, 2027 ⁷. We have not confirmed which 8415 lines are listed. A special rule for USMCA goods, 25% on non-US content with a 15% floor, is documented for Annex I-C goods. Whether it also covers Annex III goods is not confirmed. Our wire and cable brief covers the separate copper duties.

The 10% Section 301 tariff on Mexican goods, in force since July 24, 2026, does not apply to goods entered with a USMCA claim or to goods under Section 232 ⁸. Our guide to USMCA rules of origin explains the certificate. All rates here are as of October 23, 2026.

Rules in force

As of October 23, 2026. Live list: corridor watch.

Measure	What it does	Since	Status
US AIM Act, HFC phasedown	Cap of 60% of baseline in 2024 to 2028, 30% from 2029. Product limits apply to HFCs inside equipment 5	2022	In force
EPA Technology Transitions, residential and light commercial AC	Components for new systems must use refrigerant with global warming potential below 700 4	Jan 1, 2025	In force
EPA final rule on installation deadline	Removes the installation deadline for systems with components made or imported before Jan 1, 2025 6,10	Jul 27, 2026	In force
US Section 232, HVAC goods (Annex III)	Reduced 15% on full value under Proclamation 11032. Which 8415 lines are listed, and USMCA treatment, to be confirmed 7	Jun 8, 2026	Check tariff line
US Section 301, forced labor	10% on Mexican goods. Exempt with a USMCA claim; goods under Section 232 excluded 8	Jul 24, 2026	In force

06Where do makers need cash, and how is it financed?

An air conditioner maker buys compressors, copper and aluminum coil, steel cabinets, fans and electronics before it builds a unit. In general practice, stock for the cooling season is built months before it is sold.

Payment terms are long. Atradius reports that most business-to-business terms in Mexico run one to three months, and that about one fifth of invoices are overdue ¹¹. We found no source for the terms US distributors give.

Most of this trade runs on open account terms. Stock held for the season can be financed with inventory finance, and dealers can be financed through distributor finance. Our guides to factoring in Mexico and payment terms in the corridor go further.

Where the cash goes

From parts order to payment

1. Before the season
   Parts and materialsThe maker buys compressors, coil, steel and electronics. Imported inputs may enter under IMMEX.
2. Production
   Build and hold stockUnits are built and held ahead of summer demand, which ties up cash in stock.
3. Shipment
   Freight and dutiesTrucking, the customs broker and any Section 232 duty are paid at or near the border.
4. Invoice
   Waiting for paymentThe distributor or manufacturer pays on its terms. One- to three-month terms are usual in Mexico ¹¹.
5. Payment
   Cash returnsAbout one fifth of B2B invoices in Mexico are overdue, so payment can arrive late ¹¹.

The order of cash needs is typical for an air conditioner maker. Actual days depend on each contract and season.

Before shipmentPre-shipment finance

Funds compressors, coil and wages against confirmed orders.

Seasonal stockInventory finance

Funds units held for the season, with the stock as security.

Dealer salesDistributor finance

Funds distributors and dealers to hold units until their own customers pay.

Buyer may not payTrade credit insurance

Covers most of an unpaid invoice if a covered buyer fails to pay.

07What should air conditioner traders watch next?

Watch the Annex III lists and US guidance on US content, the end of the reduced 15% rate on December 31, 2027, and the next step in the HFC cap in 2029 ^5,7. USMCA stays in force. On July 1, 2026 the US did not agree to renew it in its current form, so annual joint reviews follow until 2036 unless the three countries confirm an extension ¹². The live list of measures is on our corridor watch page.

• PendingUS guidance on US content under Proclamation 11032, and the Annex III product lists ⁷.
• 2026Daikin's announced new projects in San Luis Potosí, including 350 more jobs, per its October 2025 announcement ³.
• Dec 31, 2027The reduced 15% Section 232 rate for Annex III HVAC goods runs to this date ⁷.
• 2029The US HFC cap falls from 60% to 30% of the historic baseline ⁵.
• Jul 1, 2036USMCA ends on this date unless the three countries confirm an extension. Annual reviews run until then ¹².

Questions traders ask

How much air conditioner trade is there between Mexico and the US?

Mexico reported US$7.5 billion of air conditioner and parts exports to the US in 2025 and US$0.5 billion of imports from the US, under HS 8415. US data shows US$7.5 billion of imports from Mexico and US$0.5 billion of exports to Mexico.

Are Mexico's exports mostly finished units or parts?

Parts. The parts line was 56.6% of Mexico's reported air conditioner exports to the US in 2025, and 72.0% on US data. Units with their own refrigerating unit were the largest finished-unit line.

Do Mexican air conditioners pay the Section 232 metals duty?

Certain residential HVAC goods are in Annex III of Proclamation 11032 at a reduced 15% rate from June 8, 2026 through December 31, 2027. Which 8415 lines are listed, and whether USMCA goods get special treatment, should be confirmed for each tariff line. These rules are as of October 23, 2026.

Which refrigerant rules apply to air conditioners sold in the US?

Since January 1, 2025, components for new residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump systems must use refrigerants with a global warming potential below 700. The AIM Act also caps HFC production and imports at 60% of the historic baseline until 2028.

How do air conditioner makers in Mexico finance their sales?

Most sell on open account, so buyers pay after delivery. Because demand is seasonal, makers and distributors usually build stock ahead of summer. Inventory finance, distributor finance, factoring and trade credit insurance can bridge the gap.

Read next

• Corridor hubCorridor watch: tariffs and rules in force
• Corridor guideUSMCA rules of origin and certificates
• Corridor guidePayment terms in the corridor: open account and the alternatives
• Product briefWire, cable and wiring harnesses: copper in the Mexico-US auto chain
• Product briefElectrical control panels: Mexico's fast-growing power gear trade with the US
• Corridor hubThe Mexico to US corridor: what moves and how it is paid for
• Ossiano Trade Finance GuideHow each trade finance instrument works
• GlossaryTrade finance terms in plain English

Making or trading air conditioners between Mexico and the US? Ossiano Capital works on trade finance in this corridor.

Start the Conversation

Sources and notes

1. UN Comtrade, annual trade data 2020 to 2025, HS 8415, Mexico and the US as reporters. Downloaded October 2026; 2025 figures may be revised. https://comtradeplus.un.org/
2. ACR Latinoamerica, Trane expands production facility in Monterrey, August 6, 2024. https://acrlatinoamerica.com/en/news/latest-news/348-enterprises/20117-trane-expands-production-facility-in-monterrey-1.html
3. MexicoIndustry, Daikin opens its third plant in San Luis Potosí and announces new investment of MXN 1.1 billion, October 12, 2025. https://www.promexicoindustry.com/en/article/daikin-opens-its-third-plant-in-san-luis-potos-and-announces-new-investment-of-mxn-1-1-billion
4. ICC Building Safety Journal, Q4 2025 update on EPA's Technology Transitions program related to A2L refrigerants. https://www.iccsafe.org/building-safety-journal/bsj-technical/q4-2025-update-epas-technology-transitions-program-related-to-a2l-refrigerants/
5. US Environmental Protection Agency, Frequent questions on the phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons, page modified September 14, 2026. https://www.epa.gov/hfcs/frequent-questions-phasedown-hydrofluorocarbons
6. Beveridge & Diamond, EPA finalizes targeted relief from HFC Technology Transitions rule, 2026. https://www.bdlaw.com/publications/epa-finalizes-targeted-relief-from-hfc-technology-transitions-rule/
7. The White House, Further adjusting the tariff regimes for imports of aluminum, steel and copper, proclamation of June 1, 2026. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/further-adjusting-the-tariff-regimes-for-imports-of-aluminum-steel-and-copper/
8. Congressional Research Service, U.S.-Mexico Trade Relations (IF11175), August 13, 2026. https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/2026-08-13_IF11175_366b72c3fd2f3ebe10b28bf3feddca0088251bbb.html
9. Air Freight News, US Bureau of Transportation Statistics transborder freight data, 2025 annual report, March 17, 2026. https://airfreight.news/articles/full/transborder-freight-data-annual-report-2025
10. JD Supra, EPA finalizes changes to Technology Transitions provisions of the AIM Act, 2026 (91 Fed. Reg. 31284, May 26, 2026). https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/epa-finalizes-changes-to-technology-4915633/
11. Atradius, B2B payment practices trends in Mexico, 2026. https://atradius.us/knowledge-and-research/reports/b2b-payment-practices-trends-in-mexico-2026
12. White & Case, USMCA 2026 joint review: United States declines to extend agreement, July 2, 2026. https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/usmca-2026-joint-review-united-states-declines-extend-agreement-triggering-annual

Trade values are US dollars from UN Comtrade at the 4-digit HS level unless a 6-digit line is named. Mexico and the US record the same shipments under different rules for value, country of origin and timing, so their figures differ. Percent changes compare 2025 with 2020. All facts on this page are as of October 23, 2026, the date of publication, and may have changed since. Rules and tariffs are as of October 23, 2026 and change often: check the corridor watch before you act.

About this brief. Prepared for Ossiano Capital. People planned, researched, wrote and checked this brief, using AI tools to help with research and checking. You are welcome to quote or reuse it: please credit Ossiano Capital and link to this page.