Two sides of the same trade: why Mexico's and US data differ

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Mexico and the US each record the same goods as they cross the border, and the totals do not match. This page explains why, shows where the gaps are largest, and sets out how this series uses the two sets of figures.

Published October 23, 2026 · Facts as of October 23, 2026 · 13 min read · Sources listed at the end · Rules as of October 23, 2026

Facts as of October 23, 2026. This page states the facts as they stood on that date. Tariffs, rules and figures may have changed since publication. Tariffs and trade policy change often, so we review these pages every month and update them. Last reviewed: October 24, 2026.

US$88.1bnHow much more the US reported exporting to Mexico in 2025 than Mexico reported importing from the US ¹

35.3%That southbound gap as a share of Mexico's figure, up from 26.5% in 2020 ¹

1.2%The northbound gap in 2025: Mexico's export figure is US$6.4bn above the US import figure ¹

1999Latest year covered by a joint US-Mexico reconciliation study found for this page ^3,6

What is it?

Mirror statistics are the two records of one trade flow: the exporting country's record of its exports and the importing country's record of its imports. For 2025, the US reported US$338.0 billion of exports to Mexico, while Mexico reported US$249.9 billion of imports from the US ¹.

Why does it matter?

A market size, a ranking or a trade balance changes with the source. On Mexico's data, Mexico sold US$295.5 billion more to the US than it bought in 2025. On US data in UN Comtrade, the figure is US$201.0 billion ¹.

How does it work?

Each country compiles its own customs declarations, with its own rules for value, partner country, small shipments and timing ^3,4,5. UN Comtrade publishes both sides, so the gap shows up code by code ¹.

In this page

1. What are mirror statistics?
2. How far apart are the two countries' figures?
3. Which products show the largest gaps?
4. Which products drove the widening since 2022?
5. Why do the two sides differ?
6. Why do Mexico's 6-digit lines not add up?
7. Why does this series rank products by Mexico's data?
8. How should traders and lenders use these figures?

01What are mirror statistics?

Every shipment between Mexico and the US is recorded twice. The exporter's country records an export, and the importer's country records an import. Both records describe the same goods, but they rarely match ^3,4.

In Mexico, the customs declaration, the pedimento, is the base of trade statistics. The customs authorities SAT and ANAM, the statistics office INEGI, the central bank Banxico and the economy ministry work as one group to compile the figures ⁵. Our guide to customs brokers and the pedimento explains the declaration. In the US, the Census Bureau compiles trade statistics from filings to US Customs and Border Protection. Electronic filings cover over 95% of commodity transactions ⁶.

UN Comtrade collects each country's report and publishes both. That is why this series can show Mexico's figure and the US figure for every product ¹.

1. ShipmentA plant in the US ships goods to a buyer in Mexico, or the other way round.
2. Export recordThe exporter's filing becomes an export record in its own country, under that country's rules for value and destination ^4,5.
3. BorderThe goods cross. The same truck passes through both countries' customs.
4. Import recordThe importer's declaration becomes an import record, with its own value and partner country rules ^4,5.
5. Two figuresINEGI and the US Census Bureau each publish their totals. UN Comtrade shows both ¹.

02How far apart are the two countries' figures?

Going north, the two sides agree closely. Mexico reported US$545.4 billion of exports to the US in 2025, and the US reported US$539.0 billion of imports from Mexico. The difference is US$6.4 billion, or 1.2% ¹. In every year from 2020 to 2025 the two figures were within 1.3% of each other. Mexico's figure was higher in 2020 and 2025, and lower from 2021 to 2024 ¹.

Going south, they do not. The US reported US$338.0 billion of exports to Mexico in 2025, while Mexico reported US$249.9 billion of imports from the US. The US figure is US$88.1 billion, or 35.3%, higher ¹. The gap was US$44.5 billion, or 26.5%, in 2020. It narrowed to 21.5% in 2022 and has widened every year since ¹.

The gap changes the trade balance. On Mexico's data, Mexico's surplus with the US was US$295.5 billion in 2025. On US data in UN Comtrade, it was US$201.0 billion ¹. US Census figures, a third series, appear in our corridor overview.

Chart

Trade between Mexico and the US, as reported by each side

• Mexico exports to the US, Mexico data
• US imports from Mexico, US data
• Mexico imports from the US, Mexico data
• US exports to Mexico, US data

US$ billion, all goods. Solid lines: as reported by Mexico. Dashed lines: as reported by the US. Source: UN Comtrade, 2020 to 2025.

03Which products show the largest gaps?

The table lists the ten largest gaps in 2025 among the 19 four-digit codes this series covers, in both directions ¹. Five of the ten are in computers, computer parts and phones.

The largest is in computer parts going south. The US reported US$20.6 billion of exports to Mexico, while Mexico reported US$1.0 billion of imports. Going north the pattern reverses: Mexico reported US$8.3 billion of computer parts exports to the US, more than twice the US$3.7 billion the US recorded ¹. For computers and servers, the US figure is higher in both directions ¹.

Some gaps run the other way. For gas turbines and jet engines, Mexico records more than the US in both directions. For diesel engines, Mexico records more imports than the US records exports ¹. Going south, the US figure is higher for refined fuels, phones and network equipment and auto parts ¹.

No source retrieved for this page explains any of these product gaps, so this page assigns no cause to them. The general reasons below may apply, but their share in each gap is unknown.

Compare

The largest gaps between Mexico's and US data, 2025

US$ billion, 2025, among the 19 four-digit HS codes covered by this series. Mexico data: Mexico's exports to the US or imports from the US. US data: the same flow as reported by the US. Higher side: which country reports more, and by how much. Source: UN Comtrade ¹.

Product (HS code)	Direction	Mexico data	US data	Gap	Higher side
Computer parts (8473)	US to Mexico	1.0	20.6	19.6	US, +2,039%
Computers and servers (8471)	Mexico to US	78.3	89.9	11.7	US, +15%
Computers and servers (8471)	US to Mexico	2.6	13.7	11.0	US, +418%
Computer parts (8473)	Mexico to US	8.3	3.7	4.6	Mexico, +126%
Phones and network equipment (8517)	US to Mexico	2.2	6.5	4.4	US, +200%
Refined fuels (2710)	US to Mexico	23.1	27.5	4.3	US, +19%
Gas turbines and jet engines (8411)	Mexico to US	5.9	2.4	3.5	Mexico, +146%
Gas turbines and jet engines (8411)	US to Mexico	4.2	1.4	2.8	Mexico, +201%
Auto parts (8708)	US to Mexico	16.6	18.9	2.3	US, +14%
Diesel engines (8408)	US to Mexico	5.1	3.2	1.9	Mexico, +59%

For computer parts in 2025, the US reported US$20.6 billion of exports to Mexico, while Mexico reported US$1.0 billion of imports.

04Which products drove the widening since 2022?

The southbound gap grew from US$57.5 billion in 2022 to US$88.1 billion in 2025, an increase of US$30.6 billion ¹. Four product codes account for US$24.9 billion of that increase, or 81%. Computer parts (HS 8473) and computers and servers (HS 8471) alone account for US$18.7 billion, or 61%. In both, US-reported exports to Mexico more than doubled, while Mexico's reported imports from the US grew by far less in dollar terms. For computer parts, US data went from US$9.8 billion to US$20.6 billion, and Mexico data from US$0.7 billion to US$1.0 billion.

Refined fuels widened for a different reason. Both sides fell, but Mexico's figure fell faster: US data went from US$39.7 billion to US$27.5 billion and Mexico data from US$39.5 billion to US$23.1 billion, adding US$4.2 billion to the gap. Phones and network equipment added US$2.0 billion.

Across the 19 codes this series covers, the net increase is US$23.4 billion, or 77% of the total. The remaining US$7.2 billion sits in products outside this series. No source retrieved for this page explains these shifts, so this page does not assign a cause. The general reasons in the next section show the kinds of rules that can produce such gaps.

Compare

Which products widened the southbound gap, 2022 to 2025

US$ billion. US data: US exports to Mexico. Mexico data: Mexico's imports from the US. Gap change: the change in (US data minus Mexico data) from 2022 to 2025. Source: UN Comtrade ¹; all-goods totals as in the chart above.

Product (HS code)	US data 2022	US data 2025	Mexico data 2022	Mexico data 2025	Gap change
Computer parts (8473)	9.8	20.6	0.7	1.0	+10.5
Computers and servers (8471)	4.0	13.7	1.1	2.6	+8.2
Refined fuels (2710)	39.7	27.5	39.5	23.1	+4.2
Phones and network equipment (8517)	3.9	6.5	1.6	2.2	+2.0
All 19 codes in this series					+23.4
All goods	324.4	338.0	266.9	249.9	+30.6

05Why do the two sides differ?

Statistics offices name a set of general reasons. The sources are old: a joint US-Mexico reconciliation of 1998 and 1999 data, a UN note on US statistics, a 2007 note from Mexico to a UN expert group and INEGI metadata for 2009 ^3,4,5,7. They show how differences arise. Their dollar figures are historical.

Value comes first. INEGI's 2009 metadata values imports FOB and adds freight and insurance on a separate line to give a CIF figure ⁵. The US values imports at customs transaction value and exports on a basis close to FOB ⁴. The data pack records Mexico's imports in UN Comtrade at CIF value ¹. CIF adds freight and insurance, so it would raise Mexico's import figure. Valuation alone therefore would not explain why the US export figure is higher. FOB and CIF are Incoterms rules, set out in the Incoterms guide.

Partner country comes second. Mexico assigns imports to the country of origin and exports to the last known destination, and does not identify triangular operations ⁵. The US uses country of origin for imports and country of ultimate destination for exports ⁴. The OECD calls re-exports the largest source of distortion in merchandise trade statistics ⁹.

In the 1998 and 1999 reconciliation, adjustments for these causes closed about 49% and 42% of the southbound gap, and about 16% and 17% of the northbound gap ³. The study said that unfiled US exports, especially from foreign trade zones, could explain a substantial part of the rest, without giving a figure ³. No later joint reconciliation was found for this page.

Why they differ

Documented reasons for the gap

General reasons documented by the US Census Bureau, the UN Statistics Division and INEGI. Sources date from 1998 to 2009, except the timing row. Dollar effects are historical ^3,4,5,6,7,8.

Reason	Mexico	United States	Documented effect
Value basis	Imports FOB plus a separate freight and insurance line, giving CIF (2009) 5	Imports at customs value; exports on a FAS basis, close to FOB 4	CIF would raise Mexico's import figure 1,5
Partner country	Imports by origin; exports by last known destination; triangular trade not identified 5	Imports by origin; exports by ultimate destination; country of shipment if origin is unknown 4	Mexico's old single-origin import form moved US$6.0bn (1998) and US$6.5bn (1999). A multi-origin form started May 21, 2001 3
Re-exports	Exports include foreign goods sold to the US without significant change 3	Imports follow country of origin 3	Adjustment of US$1,955m (1998) and US$2,516m (1999) 3
Small shipments	Records all transactions (1998 and 1999) 3	Excludes exports below a value threshold and estimates them; sources give different thresholds 3,4	Adjustment of minus US$1,113m (1998) and minus US$1,265m (1999) 3
Goods for processing	Export plants file periodic customs declarations; Mexico asked the UN for guidance on dates and change of ownership (2007) 7	No specific rule found	Not measured in the sources
Goods in transit	No specific rule found	Excluded, but traders sometimes enter low-duty goods for consumption instead 4	Distorts bilateral balances; not measured 4
Timing	Preliminary data 24 to 28 days after the period, revised at 40 to 41 days, final 5 months after year end 8	Monthly release about 35 days after the month 6	Not measured in the sources
Unfiled exports	Not applicable	Non-filing by US exporters, especially from foreign trade zones 3	Could explain a substantial part of the 1998 and 1999 southbound gap; not quantified 3

06Why do Mexico's 6-digit lines not add up?

Mexico's report to UN Comtrade has a second feature. For some products, the 6-digit lines inside a 4-digit code add up to less than the 4-digit total. The largest case is corn imports. In 2025 the 4-digit total is US$5.68 billion, while the two 6-digit lines add up to US$2.36 billion, or 41.5% ¹. The shortfall sits in the source data, and the data pack copies it as published ¹.

This series therefore quotes the 4-digit value as the headline. Where a brief shows 6-digit lines, it gives them as shares of the 4-digit total and notes that they do not add up. The US-reported 6-digit lines in the data pack add up to their totals ¹.

Data note

Where Mexico's 6-digit lines fall short of the 4-digit total, 2025

US$ billion, as reported by Mexico. Codes covered by this series with a 4-digit total above US$1 billion where the 6-digit lines add up to less than 95% of it. Source: UN Comtrade ¹.

Product (HS code)	Direction	Sum of 6-digit lines	4-digit total	Share
Corn (1005)	US to Mexico	2.36	5.68	41.5%
Gas turbines and jet engines (8411)	US to Mexico	2.93	4.24	69.0%
Gas turbines and jet engines (8411)	Mexico to US	4.68	5.91	79.1%
Trucks (8704)	Mexico to US	31.29	35.78	87.5%
Trucks (8704)	US to Mexico	1.51	1.66	90.9%
Natural gas and LPG (2711)	US to Mexico	10.20	10.78	94.6%

07Why does this series rank products by Mexico's data?

A ranking needs one source, and the two sides give different answers. This series ranks every product by its 2025 value as reported by Mexico, and shows the US figure beside it ¹.

There are three reasons. First, one reporter covers both directions, so Mexico's exports and imports are counted under the same rules and the two top 10 lists can be compared. Second, the series is written for firms that trade through Mexico's customs, and Mexico's figures are built from their declarations ⁵. Third, for exports the choice changes little. On US data, nine of Mexico's top 10 exports stay in the top 10. Computer parts drop out, and crude oil enters at US$9.0 billion, a code for which Mexico's data shows no exports to the US in 2025 ¹. No source retrieved explains that difference.

The import list changes more. On US data, five of the top 10 would differ. Computer parts, computers, integrated circuits, storage media and phones would enter, and diesel engines, passenger cars, gas turbines, medical instruments and gasoline engines would leave ¹. Readers who work from US data can use the US figure shown beside each value in our corridor overview and briefs.

08How should traders and lenders use these figures?

Mixed figures can mislead a market study or a credit file. A lender sizing a Mexican importer's purchases from US sellers can get very different answers from the two sides, so the national figures are a starting point. The firm's own documents carry more weight in assessing buyer and country risk. Our guides to electronic invoices (CFDI) and what lenders ask Mexican companies for cover those documents, and the Trade Finance Guide explains how data is used in trade credit decisions.

Tariff dates can also move a shipment from one month or year to another on one side, as traders bring orders forward. The corridor watch lists the dates in force as of October 23, 2026.

Checklist

Before you quote a Mexico-US trade figure

• Say whose dataName the reporter: Mexico or the US. This series gives both.
• Compare both sidesWhere they differ by more than a few percent, check the code in the gap table before relying on one side.
• Use the 4-digit totalTreat Mexico's 6-digit lines as a mix, because some do not add up to the total.
• Check for revisionsINEGI publishes final annual data five months after the year ends ⁸. UN Comtrade figures for 2025 may be revised ¹.
• Anchor on the firm's documentsFor a credit decision, the firm's own commercial invoices and CFDI matter more than national totals.

These checks are general practice.

Questions traders ask

Why do Mexico's and US trade figures differ?

Each country records the same shipments under its own rules. They value goods differently, assign the partner country differently, treat small shipments and re-exports differently, and publish on different schedules. Studies by the US Census Bureau, the UN and INEGI describe these reasons.

How big is the gap?

In 2025 the US reported US$338.0 billion of exports to Mexico, while Mexico reported US$249.9 billion of imports from the US, a gap of US$88.1 billion. Going north the two sides were close: US$545.4 billion on Mexico's data and US$539.0 billion on US data.

Which figure is right?

Both follow their own country's rules, so each is right on its own terms. For a single product, compare both sides and say whose data you quote. For a credit decision, use the firm's own invoices and records.

Why do Mexico's 6-digit lines not add up to the 4-digit total?

For some products, Mexico's report to UN Comtrade has 6-digit lines that add up to less than the 4-digit total. For corn imports in 2025, the lines add up to 41.5% of the total. The shortfall is in the source data. This series quotes the 4-digit total as the headline.

Which figures does this series use?

It ranks products by 2025 value as reported by Mexico, so that exports and imports follow one set of rules, and shows the US figure beside each value.

Read next

• Corridor hubThe Mexico to US corridor: what moves and how it is paid for
• Corridor hubCorridor watch: tariffs and rules in force
• Product briefComputer parts: a fast-growing Mexico-US trade the two sides count differently
• Product briefComputers and servers: Mexico's largest export to the US, led by AI racks
• Corridor guideCustoms brokers and the customs declaration (pedimento)
• Corridor guideWhat lenders ask Mexican companies for
• Ossiano Trade Finance GuideHow each trade finance instrument works
• GlossaryTrade finance terms in plain English

Sizing a trade between Mexico and the US? Ossiano Capital works on trade finance in this corridor.

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Sources and notes

1. UN Comtrade, annual trade data 2020 to 2025, all goods and 4-digit and 6-digit HS codes, Mexico and the US as reporters. Downloaded October 2026; 2025 figures may be revised. Valuation bases as recorded in the corridor data pack notes. https://comtradeplus.un.org/
2. Congressional Research Service, U.S.-Mexico Trade Relations (IF11175), August 13, 2026. https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/2026-08-13_IF11175_366b72c3fd2f3ebe10b28bf3feddca0088251bbb.html
3. US Census Bureau, Merchandise trade reconciliation, United States, Mexico and Canada, 1998 and 1999. https://census.gov/foreign-trade/reconciliation/recon9899.pdf
4. UN Statistics Division, Expert Group on International Merchandise Trade Statistics, United States country note (undated). https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/EG-IMTS/Web%20documents/Country%20Notes/USA%20-%20Country%20Note.pdf
5. INEGI, metadata catalog 8, merchandise trade statistics (reference period 2009). https://www.inegi.org.mx/rnm/index.php/catalog/8
6. US Census Bureau, U.S. international trade in goods: methodology overview (imports). https://www.census.gov/econ/overview/mt0100.html
7. UN Statistics Division, Expert Group on International Merchandise Trade Statistics, Mexico country note, November 2007. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/EG-IMTS/Web%20documents/Country%20Notes/Mexico%20-%20Country%20Note.pdf
8. INEGI, Publicación de cifras del comercio internacional de mercancías de México, presentation at a UN event, 2023. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2023/ElSavaldor/Publicaci%C3%B3n%20de%20cifras%20del%20comercio%20internacional%20de%20mercanc%C3%ADas%20de%20M%C3%A9xico.pdf
9. OECD, The re-export puzzle: how the OECD addresses the largest source of distortion in merchandise trade statistics, January 22, 2026. https://www.oecd.org/en/blogs/2026/01/the-re-export-puzzle-how-the-oecd-addresses-the-largest-source-of-distortion-in-merchandise-trade-statistics.html

All facts on this page are as of October 23, 2026, the date of publication, and may have changed since. Rules and tariffs are as of October 23, 2026 and change often: check the corridor watch before you act.

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